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Click on the scatter plot or the map to learn more about my current model for each state. You can also get a link to give to the Democratic candidate. Models are quite simple, including all high-quality (B or better) polls, smoothed over a ~1 month period, with priors set using the 2016 results, incumbency advantage, and an assumed Dem lead in the generic ballot.
If you like this model, please also check out my presidential election model, along with the tracker to see how those numbers have changed over the course of the year. If you have thoughts or questions feel free to contact me directly at drdavegoldberg@gmail.com.
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Margin"Margin": Sort by the model margin.
Share"Share": Sort by share of total money raised.
Amount"Amount": Sort by the total Dem receipts.
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